NFL Week 16 Point Spread Picks


Welcome to my NFL Week 16 point spread picks column. Unfortunately I went 7-9 last week for my column. There were a few lines that changed dramatically last week after I had written my article. My record is always reflective of what the betting line is at kickoff of that game. I am now 125-99 on the season. This ranks me 104 out of 8575 for the season. You can always check out my profile here to see all of my results. I am ranked 2 out of 3036 over the last 8 seasons. There are 16 games on tap for week 16. Let’s take a look at my point spread picks for this week!

Thursday, December 23rd

San Francisco 49ers (8-6) @ Tennessee Titans (9-5) Line: 49ers by 3 1/2

San Francisco comes into this contest the winners of four out of their last five games while Tennessee has lost three out of their last four. The 49ers offense has come alive after their early season struggles. They have scored 26+ points in each of their last six tilts. The 49ers also have the sixth ranked defense in the NFL. Pick: 49ers

Saturday, December 25th

Cleveland Browns (7-7) @ Green Bay Packers (11-3) Line: Packers by 7 1/2

The Browns lost a close fought contest to the Raiders last week 16-14. Green Bay eked out a 31-30 win over the Ravens after Baltimore failed to convert a 2 point conversion attempt. Cleveland has had their roster decimated by Covid-19 the last few weeks. They still have 15 players and one coach currently on the reserve/Covid-19 list. The Packers are tied for the best record at covering the spread in the league at 11-3 on the year. I expect them to overcome the Browns and cover this week as well. Pick: Packers

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (10-4)  Line: Cardinals by 1 1/2

The Colts are traveling to Arizona having won five out of their last six contests. The Cardinals and Kyler Murray have struggled recently. They have lost three of their last five games. Craig Reynolds went from the Lions practice squad to rush for 112 yards against the Cardinals defense last week in Arizona’s 30-12 loss to the woeful Lions. Based on this result I expect Jonathan Taylor to have his way with the Cardinals on Saturday. Pick: Colts

Sunday, December 26th

Detroit Lions (2-11-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-8) Line: Falcons by 5 1/2

Detroit has played much better recently as they have won two of their last three games. The Falcons lost 31-13 to the 49ers in week 15. Despite the Lions record, they have been one of the better teams at covering the spread this season with a record of 9-5. Jared Goff’s revival has coincided with the breakout of rookie WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. I expect the surging Lions to win and to cover this game. Pick: Lions

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) Line: Bengals by 2 1/2

The Ravens lost a heartbreaker to the Packers 31-30 last week. The Bengals defeated the Broncos by a score of 15-10 in week 15. Back in week 7 the Bengals pummeled the Ravens 41-17. The Baltimore defense is a dichotomy, as they have the best run defense in the league but the second worst pass defense. I expect Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow to carve up the Ravens suspect pass defense once again. Pick: Bengals

Los Angeles Rams (10-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-7) Line: Rams by 2 1/2

Los Angeles beat Seattle 20-10 last week while the Vikings earned a hard fought victory over the Bears by the score of 17-9 on Monday Night Football. The Rams travel to Minnesota with most of their players having returned from the reserve/Covid-19 list. The Vikings learned today that they will be without RB Dalvin Cook for at least this game and possibly more as he was placed on the reserve/Covid-19 list. I expect the Rams sixth ranked offense to be too much for the Vikings 30th ranked defense to overcome. Pick: Rams

Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ New England Patriots (9-5) Line: Patriots by 2 1/2

This will be the second game between these two teams in the past 20 days. New England traveled on the road to defeat Buffalo 14-10 in that contest. Last week the Bills defeated the Panthers 31-14 in week 15 while the Patriots lost 27-17 to the Colts. I expect New England to move one step closer to winning the AFC East for the 18th time in the past 20 seasons. Pick: Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) @ New York Jets (3-11) Line: Jets by 1 1/2

This will be a fight between two teams that are battling to have the number 1 overall pick in the April 2022 NFL draft. The Jaguars are looking to improve after the firing of former head coach Urban Meyer. The Jets currently have 12 players on the reserve/Covid-19 list for this contest which will further decimate an already weak New York roster. Pick: Jaguars

New York Giants (4-10) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-7) Line: Eagles by 9 1/2

Giants QB Daniel Jones is now done for the season. New York will have to decide in the offseason if Jones will be a part of their future plans. The Eagles defeat of the Washington Football Team last week has placed them back into the thick of the NFC playoff race. I believe that this will be motivation for the Eagles and that they will dominate the Giants this week. Pick: Eagles (Pick of the Week)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) @ Carolina Panthers (5-9) Line: Buccaneers by 10 1/2

Tom Brady was shutout for the first time in 15 years last week by the Saints. It appears that New Orleans is the only team that has figured out how to handle Brady as he has now lost all four of his contests to them since he has been with the Buccaneers. This will be the first of two meetings in the next three weeks between the Panthers and the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has had close contests in three out of their last four games. I expect the Buccaneers to win but that the Panthers will do enough to keep it a close game. Pick: Panthers

Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) @ Houston Texans (3-11) Line: Chargers by 9 1/2

The Chargers could not stave off a late 4th quarter rally from the Chiefs in week 15 and fell 34-28. The Texans defeated the woeful Jaguars by a score of 30-16. The Texans thin roster has been ravaged by Covid-19 this week as well. I believe that a combination of this fact and that the Chargers desire to stay in the playoff race will be enough to overwhelm the Texans. Pick: Chargers

Chicago Bears (4-10) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-9) Line: Seahawks by 6 1/2

Chicago travels to Seattle after losing to the Vikings 17-9 last week, meanwhile the Seahawks lost to the Rams 30-10. Both of these teams have been huge disappointments after starting the season with high expectations. The Bears have lost 8 of their last 9 games and are tied for the worst record in the league against the spread at 4-10. Seattle has won two of their last three contests. I am going to go with the Seahawks at home. Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) Line: Chiefs by 7 1/2

The Steelers had an impressive showing against the Titans with a 19-13 victory last week, however, the Chiefs have won 7 consecutive contests. The Steelers have won two of their last three games to stay on the periphery of the AFC playoff picture. Although I expect the Chiefs to win this week, I do expect the Steelers to cover the spread. Pick: Steelers

Denver Broncos (7-7) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-7) Line: Raiders by 1 1/2

Denver lost their starting QB Teddy Bridgewater to a concussion last week and the game to the Bengals 15-10. The Raiders defeated the Browns 16-14 in week 15. Denver will be forced to start Drew Lock at quarterback this week. He has not fared well as a starting QB in the past with a career record of 8-10. That doesn’t bode well for Denver. Pick: Raiders

Washington Football Team (6-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-4) Line: Cowboys by 10 1/2

The Football Team lost to the Eagles 27-17 last week while the Cowboys defeated the Giants by a score of 21-6. Washington will get starting QB Taylor Heinicke back from the reserve/Covid-19 list this week. This will be the second contest in three weeks between Washington and Dallas. I expect this to be a close win for the Cowboys. Pick: Football Team

Monday, December 27th

Miami Dolphins (7-7) @ New Orleans Saints (7-7) Line: Saints by 2 1/2

Miami has won six games in a row. The Dolphins have been better both offensively and defensively during this time frame. The Saints defeated the Buccaneers 9-0 last week but will be forced to start third string rookie QB Ian Book this week with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both slated to miss the game. This line is surprising considering these stats. I expect the Dolphins to win this game and to cover the spread. Pick: Dolphins

Written by Jeremy Thomas

Sports and fantasy sports fan, WWE and alternative rock music are some of my interests. Check out my weekly NFL point spread picks.

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