NFL Week 12 Point Spread Picks

Welcome to the inaugural edition of my weekly point spread picks column on Sports Obsessive!  I have been actively making NFL point spread picks and playing in point spread pools for the past 8 years. My record over this time has been 1083-938, which is 2nd out of 3029 participants. My current season record is 91-74, which ranks 161 out of 8492 participants. There is a link in my bio for anyone that is interested in perusing my past picks and statistics. This Thanksgiving week of NFL action features a slate of 15 games. There are 3 games on Thursday, 11 games on Sunday and a Monday Night Football game this week. Let’s get into my NFL week 12 point spread picks!

Thursday, November 25th

Chicago Bears (3-7)  @ Detroit Lions (0-9-1) Line: Bears by 3 1/2

This is a tale of 2 teams that are headed nowhere this season. There are rumors swirling that Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy has lost his locker room and will be fired after this game. Both of these teams are close to .500 on the season against the spread. The Bears are 4-6 against the spread while the Lions are 6-4. Pick: Lions 

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3) Line: Cowboys by 6 1/2

I am a bit worried about Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense since Dak’s return from his injury 2 games ago.  Dak and the Cowboys offense has consistently looked out of sync.  However, the Cowboys are the second best team in the league at covering the spread with a sterling point spread record of 8-2 this season while the Raiders are a mundane 4-6.  This was a very tough pick for me but I am going to go with Dak having a “get right” game on Thanksgiving Day. Pick: Cowboys

Buffalo Bills (6-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5) Line: Bills by 4 1/2

The Saints and the Bills have both been struggling recently. The Saints have lost 3 games in a row while the Bills have been on the losing end in 2 of their past 3 contests. I still feel that the Bills are the best team in the AFC East and that they will turn it around in this game to beat the Saints by at least a touchdown. Pick: Bills

Sunday, November 28th

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-5) Line: Buccaneers by 2 1/2

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers looked dominant against an inept New York Giants squad on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football. This game will, however, be a test of Tampa Bay’s staunch run defense. Jonathan Taylor has been a revelation this season while running for 1,122 yards and 13 TD’s. I like Tampa’s chances to stop the run against Indy on Sunday. They are only allowing 56 yards rushing per game to opposing RB’s and have only allowed 1 team (Chicago) a 100 yard rushing day. Pick: Buccaneers

New York Jets (2-8) @ Houston Texans (2-8) Line: Texans by 2 1/2

This game will mark the return of Zach Wilson at QB for the New York Jets after a 4 game absence due to a knee injury. He has looked inconsistent for most of the season but has shown some sparks of brilliance such as his October 3rd performance against the Titans. Both of these teams 2-8 record against the spread is the same as their actual record. It’s just a hunch but I am going to go with the Jets. Pick: Jets

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) @ New York Giants (3-7) Line: Eagles by 3 1/2

The Giants offense looked horrible on Monday Night Football and it cost offensive coordinator Jason Garrett his job. Daniel Jones looked lost at times during the game. I don’t think that it will get any better for him this week.  Pick: Eagles

Carolina Panthers (5-6) @ Miami Dolphins (4-7) Line: Dolphins by 1/2

The Panthers and Dolphins have both been playing better football over the past few weeks. Tua Tagovailoa appears to be blossoming into the QB that the Dolphins thought that they were getting with the 5th overall pick last season. Cam Newton returned to the Carolina Panthers last week for his first start of the season and looked very good in a loss to the Washington Football Team. Both of these teams are under .500 against the spread this season.  I am going to go with the rising Dolphins. Pick: Dolphins

Tennessee Titans (8-3) @ New England Patriots (7-4) Line: Patriots by 5 1/2

Tennessee has played surprisingly well after losing all world RB Derrick Henry to foot surgery earlier this season. New England might be the surprise team in the NFL right now and they look like a real contender in the AFC. Both of these teams have been very good at covering the point spread this season with 7-4 records against the spread.  I really like the development of Mac Jones and think the Patriots have gotten the steal of the draft. Pick: Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) Line: Bengals by 3 1/2

Cincinnati were the darlings of the NFL after hammering Baltimore 41-17 in week 7.  They have struggled since then, losing 2 out of their last 3 contests. Pittsburgh has looked very mediocre this season and have had all of their games decided by 10 points or less. Pittsburgh is hoping to get TJ Watt back on the defensive side of the football this week. The Steelers offense appeared to be coming to life last week, putting up 37 points in a loss to the Chargers.  Pick: Steelers

Atlanta Falcons (4-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) Line: Jaguars by 1/2

The Falcons have looked horrid in their last 2 games. They lost 43-3 to the Cowboys in week 10 and followed that up with a 25-0 defeat at the hands of the Patriots last Thursday night. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense has been very underwhelming all season.  The Jaguars are a hard team to figure out.  They seem to have some great games against superior competition like they did when they beat the Bills 9-6 in week 9. They also are capable of putting up some real stinkers like they did by losing 30-10 to the 49ers last week. My gut is telling me that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars pull this one out. Pick: Jaguars

Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) @ Denver Broncos (5-5) Line: Chargers by 2 1/2

Both of these teams are 5-5 on the season against the spread. Denver looked dominant at home against the Cowboys in week 10 winning 30-16. Last week they fell back to Earth against the Eagles losing 30-13. I like the Broncos chances playing at home this week in covering the spread against an equally inconsistent Chargers team. Pick: Broncos

Los Angeles Rams (7-3) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3) Line: Packers by 1 1/2

The Packers are the best team at covering the spread in the NFL this season with a superb 9-2 record against the spread. Despite losing last week, Aaron Rodgers looked splendid in the Packers 34-31 loss to the Vikings. The Rams offense has floundered in their last 2 contests losing 31-10 to the 49ers last week and 28-16 to the Titans in week 10. Their offense didn’t look in sync in those 2 games after it was firing on all cylinders earlier in the season. Pick: Packers

Minnesota Vikings (5-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-5) Line: 49ers by 2 1/2

Both of these teams offenses have come alive in their past 2 games. The Vikings and 49ers are both averaging 30+ points over this period. With this kind of offensive explosion it is no surprise that it resulted in wins for both teams. The Vikings are 6-4 against the spread this season while the 49ers are 4-6. Kirk Cousins is quietly putting together his best season for the Vikings with a 21-2 TD to INT ratio. Pick: Vikings

Cleveland Browns (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3) Line: Ravens by 4 1/2

The Ravens and Browns have both struggled to put up points in their last 2 games. They are both only averaging about 10 points per contest over this time frame.  Luckily for the Ravens they should be getting Lamar Jackson back after he missed week 11 due to an illness. I believe that this will be the difference for the Ravens and that it will enable them to cover the spread this week. Pick: Ravens

Monday, November 29th

Seattle Seahawks (3-7) @ Washington Football Team (4-6) Line: Football Team by 1/2

The Seahawks offense has really stumbled on their way to losing their past 4 games. The Football Team, on the other hand, has come alive over their past 2 games. This line is a bit puzzling to me.  Russell Wilson and the entire Seahawks offense has looked inept since he returned from injury. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke has the Washington offense buzzing.  This should have been at least a 3 1/2 point spread in favor of Washington in my opinion. Pick: Football Team (Pick of the Week)

Written by Jeremy Thomas

Sports and fantasy sports fan, WWE and alternative rock music are some of my interests. Check out my weekly NFL point spread picks.

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