School: North Dakota State
Size: 6’4/ 227lbs.
There is both a lot to like about Trey Lance and a lot to be desired. As of right now, he is my QB 5 In this draft class. Keep reading for an in-depth breakdown of a very intriguing prospect.
Trey Lance Attributes:
Rated from 1-10
- Mechanics: 7
- Anticipation: 5
- Pocket Awareness/Presence: 6
- Progression with Reads: 5
- Football IQ: 6
- Arm Power: 9
- Accuracy (Ball Placement): 7
- Football Attitude, Aggressiveness and Awareness: 9
- Ball Security: 10
- Footwork: 7
- Mobility: 9
Other Key Observations:
Good Ball Placement: Puts it where only the defender can get it, right in stride, or the right spot that allows the receiver to maximize their YAC.
Bad Ball Placement: Receivers has to stop, layout unnecessarily, or is an unintended uncatchable ball (or not a situational throw away)
Throwing a Receiver Open: Was covered perfectly by the defender and the QB throws it to the only possible spot where the completion can happen.
Check Down: It’s easier to tell you what I don’t count here. Nothing that is designed that way. No screens. If it looks like any blocking is set up for the short pass I do NOT count it, QB has to look for a receiver downfield first and then dump it short.
Notable Trey Lance Stats:
- Snaps Watched: 96
- Good Ball Placement: 50
- Bad Ball Placement: 10
- INTs: 0 in his CAREER
- TDs off Blown Coverages: 2
- Throwing A WR Open: 6
- Stood in the pocket and took a hit and delivered a good pass:5
- Checkdowns: 14
- Looked Off Defenders: 2
- Evaded/ Broken Tackles: 27
2019: 192-287/ 66.9%/ 2,786 yards/ 28 TD’s
Rushing: 1,100 Yards/ 14 TDs
***He basically only played one year.
OVERALL: 70 /100 This number is awarded both by average from the football skills section and my overall opinion of his film.
TREY LANCE FILM BREAKDOWN
- Great arm strength
- Can throw with heat in tight windows
- Gets nice air under his deep balls- Sometimes he puts too much on it but he’s definitely capable of beautiful deep balls
- Needs to be more consistent throwing on the run: He can skip the ball off the ground at times, or he throws high
- He’s got great velocity on deep throws
- Some of his deep balls were Russel Wilson-esque
- He is capable of some beautiful throws on the run, just inconsistent
- He has the arm to make any throw in the NFL
- Overall accuracy is good, only a handful of really bad throws
- He can make accurate throws outside the numbers with good velocity
- Has great speed
- A very elusive runner who also can run through arm tackles
- Very nice burst as a runner
- Protects ball very nicely as a runner
- A gifted runner who gets small in the hole has a great juke move, and always keeps his legs churning
- Can extend plays and makes some great plays while doing so
- Awesome runner near the goal line
- He can make multiple defenders miss in the hole
- Trey Lance’s agility is off the hook
- Trey Lance has great vision as a runner
- He’s also a physical runner who will lower his shoulder and knock defenders backward
- His rushing floor will be up there with the best QB rushers in the league if he gets a chance to start
- Can step up in the pocket and deliver some nice downfield throws
- Needs to work on identifying where pressure is coming from and which way to slide or escape to buy more time and not take a major loss
- He does a good job of not becoming impatient when there is no pressure. He takes his time if possible and allows the play to develop
- He is capable of athletic plays in the pocket
- He does have a tendency to sometimes roll right into pressure. It showed up multiple times in his 2019 tape
- Can get locked into the first read: It showed up quite a bit
- If 1st read is not there his instinct is to run, especially if he feels a lot of pressure
- Will need a lot of work to be able to be efficient from the pocket
- His reads have to become much quicker
- When he takes downfield shots it’s always a good decision and his intended WR is in man
- Should push the ball downfield more often
- Knows when he has a ton of yards in front of him on foot and almost always takes those yards
- Has to get better at QB play under pressure
- Can be slow to see the play develop sometimes: Anticipation will be a work in progress
- Has a quick release
- Has a little tweaking he can do with his mechanics in the pocket, like shortening the distance between his feet
- Must to display better mechanics on the run more consistently- He absolutely can be a good passer on the run and IS sometimes already
- He has nice active feet in the pocket and is not caught flat-footed
- Generates great power behind his throws using his body to turn his throwing arm into a whip.
- He does do a good job squaring up his shoulders to his target on the run
- Overall- He definitely knows proper mechanics and how to use them, just has to clean a few things up
Fantasy Upside and Summary:
He does have some great arm talent but lacks a lot of football IQ and should be considered something of a project and a player who will need some time to develop.
Lance is a one-read-and-run player most of the time. What I mean is that he locks onto one man usually and runs if it’s not there. He wasn’t running a pro-style offense at North Dakota State. They ran a super conservative offense that was meant to kill time. I don’t think they wanted him to take many risks. He would probably be best suited on a team that currently runs, or tailors their offense to run a lot of RPO’s. That will maximize his rushing efforts and simplify the passing game.
If he progresses with his football IQ and doesn’t rely only on his rushing ability, he can be a great fantasy asset. I believe it’s a tall order though, currently. I do love his arm strength, and his accuracy isn’t terrible by any means.
Should everything goes right for him he has the physical skills to be a top 12 QB in fantasy, especially with his rushing ability. If you have a strong roster who can handle a gamble, I would certainly consider taking him. Definitely worth the risk if he falls late into the first round.
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