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NFL: Week 16 Betting the Spread Preview

The Thirsty Three

Week 16 Betting Preview

This is it folks.  The gambling and fantasy world are coming to an end… What am I saying, this stuff never comes to end.  Sports Obsessive and Keith Devore stay making money all year long!  Week 16 in the NFL is however the last week when games are still stable against the spread. Week 17 generally sees teams resting starters for the playoffs and resting guys that have minor injuries on bad teams. Few teams have much to play for, as seeding is generally decided.  Week 17 has more challenges is picking games. Therefore, week 16 is your time to shine.  So let’s get it.

The Thirsty Three

Like a nice spiced rum punch or an applejack or maybe you would rather a smooth eggnog with brandy and cinnamon.  Sit back and enjoy whatever quenches your thirst this holiday season. Let’s sip some sumptuous thirsty three this week.  It’s money making time and it’s time to make some money!

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints (Spread Saints -7)

This line seems heavy for me.  The Vikings have played the Saints well in recent years. Although they lost a must have game at home to the Bears, I see the Vikings playing well on Christmas.  What the Vikings have trouble with, the Saints don’t do well which is to expose a beat up secondary.  The Saints can grind this game out with Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, but with their downfield passing attack struggling. I can see the Vikings offensive firepower hanging with the Saints coming off of two back to back painful losses.

I like the Saints to the win the game but I see the Vikings make this close game throughout

Final Score: Saints 27 – Vikings 23 – Vikings Backdoor the Spread

 

Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Spread Dolphins -3)

One of the best matchups of the week is also one of the most important from an NFL perspective.  The Raiders are teetering.  After losing a must win game against the hated Chargers last Thursday night, Jon Gruden’s squad is on the edge of playoff elimination.  Rolling into essentially a playoff game, if the Raiders lose Saturday night they are out of the playoffs for the third time in a row in the new Gruden era.

Miami has been undervalued the entire year.  They don’t have many named stars. Many saw them as a year away from contention. They tend to win ugly and all they do is beat the spread. Sitting at 11-3 Against the Spread (ATS) they have by far the highest cover rate of any team in the NFL.

I see this game as a knock down drag out that will not be appealing for the casual fans eyes. However, I like the Dolphins in the desert this week to cover. I believe Tua and is his lack of weapons can exploit the Raiders. Their lack of any sort of defense to score just enough points to hit the cover.  Mariota throws a pick late and the Dolphins hang on.

Final Score: Dolphins 24 – Raiders 20 – Dolphins cover the 3 points

 

Carolina Panthers vs. the Washington Football Team (Spread WFT -1.5)

With all the drama surrounding Dwayne Haskins, (again) I believe the Washington will come out on fire.  Alex Smith should return in this game and bring a steady hand to a team that wins by their outstanding defensive front four.  The WFT Defense is the fifth best scoring defense on the season and over the last three games.  They allow just over 21 points per game and only 19 points per game at home. Facing a middling Carolina offense that averages around 21 points per game, I see this game coming in right around the spread line.

I like the Washington to control Teddy Bridgewater from start to finish. They will keep Robby Anderson and DJ Moore mostly in check all day.  This will be another defensive struggle that will have casual fans tuning out. However, if you like to make money, I believe the WFT fighting for their playoff lives will find a way to win by three.

Final Score: Panthers 17 – WFT 20 (WFT covers the -1.5)

Alright, Alright, Alright good people.  Best of luck, hit that window where you can, and be safe. Here is to a very Merry Christmas and a HAPPY, HEALTHY, PROSPEROUS New Year! See you next week!

Written by Keith James

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