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NFL Week 4: The Thirsty Three

NFL Gambling

The Thirsty Three is back with 3 NFL picks against the spread

NFL Gambling – Perfection is Fleeting

Week 3 got back on track for NFL gambling. The season ebbs and flows but when I start to understand the teams and more importantly the lines being set I have a solid read on the outcome. After attaining perfection on the week I will always stay humble. The gambling gods humble all. Now onto NFL Week 4.

The thirsty three takes a look at lines. I bet lines, not teams, and lines tell a story. NFL Week 4 is no different. So let’s look back to see what we learned. Then in a “what have you done for me lately world” we move forward. Always moving forward. Let’s win some money!

Accountability

The Thirsty Three had its first of hopefully many perfect weeks. Let’s dig into a bite-sized recap.

The Browns – 7 vs the Bears, the game started at Browns -7.5

I put one drink on this one

1 drink equals one unit

My one unit is $50

The Browns destroyed the Bears for many reasons I didn’t see coming. Sometimes teams beat the other team and sometimes teams beat themselves. The Browns came to play, credit should be given, but the Bears were historically abysmal. Matt Nagy’s offensive game plan was a joke. The Browns sacked Justin Fields nine times in his NFL debut. He held the ball too long but this was an organizational failure starting with head coach and play-caller Matt Nagy. I like good teams at home against rookie QB’s even when the number is big.

NFL Gambling usually comes down to one score but often there are exploitable matchups based on inexperienced QB’s on the other side. Especially early. Early on rookie QBs are trying to figure it out. Coaches are trying to figure out the rookies. No one is in sync. By week 10 or 11 things usually start to click but by then the teams with rookie QB’s are usually bad. I love good teams against rookie QBs.

Browns won 26-6

The Cardinals -7.5 vs the Jags, the game kicked off with the Cardinals -8.5. I got them at Cards -8

I put three drinks on this one.

The Cardinals are rolling. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury are learning how to win. This was another good team against a rookie QB. Although this one was on the road, I really liked the matchup for the Cardinals. Big numbers are scary because teams don’t care about your bets. They don’t care about your fantasy team. They only care about winning. This can lead to back door beats.

A back door beat is when the underdog scores late in the game and takes the game from a two-score lead to a one-score lead. So if the Jags would have scored on the last drive of the game, they would have slipped through the backdoor and caused me to puke up my three drinks.

They didn’t score and I won, hopefully, you all followed me. NFL Gambling usually comes down to the last drive. Sweating one out is good for the soul.

In the third game, the Titans were -5.5 at home against a beat-up Colts team.

I placed three drinks on this game as well

The game ended at -5.5 Titans

This was a game I bet early when it was reported Carson Wentz was once again beat up with bad ankles. I thought Jacob Eason would be the starter. Another inexperienced QB playing a team with playoff aspirations with less than a 7 point spread. Give it to me.

Division games are tough because these teams know each other. Division games are often traps but in this week’s bets, I looked for a defined gambling environment. Lucky there were quite a few games that featured rookie or inexperienced QB’s and the bets worked out.

I always preach playing the odds. Some games you win, most you lose, those are the breaks of an NFL gambler but I play the odds and set myself up to succeed. Only bet what you are willing to lose, play the odds, hope for the best. It’s not an ego thing. We are gambling on an unpredictable event. Anything can happen. I joked on Twitter this week that in-game injuries are the only acceptable reason why people shouldn’t gamble. HA. Things should play out a certain way. Often they don’t. Don’t let it get you down. Just keep playing the odds.

Anyways, shall we?

NFL Gambling Season Stats

Week 1 – 1-2

Rough week, week 1 is always weird

Week 2 – 2-1

Getting closer to the target but still missed one. Not acceptable. Ha

Week 3 – 3-0

Perfection is fleeting but for this week it was attained. Stay humble

Overall 6-3

NFL Week 4

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals -7

I wanted to get the Thirsty Three out early this week because I love the Bengals against the Jaguars at -7. This line may move up for the Bengals, so lock in -7 and ditch the hook where you can. I already placed it at -7. Do it now. The Jaguars have lost 18 straight football games. That is hard to do. They are a mess. Urban Meyer looks lost. Urban and Trevor Lawrence are not used to losing. It’s not fun. This is a bad team poorly coached.

The Bengals beat down division rival Pittsburgh on the road this past week. One area of improvement for the Bengals is the defensive line. They spent a lot of money so they wouldn’t get run over and so far it has worked. The Bengals are 8th in rush defense and 5th in yards per carry at only 3.3 yards per tote. Their total defense has improved from last year to 9th overall at only 4.5 yards per play. That’s impressive.

Their one loss came on the road to the Bears who controlled the game defensively. The Jags can not control any game. The only hope the Jags have is to throw their way to victory. The problem is Trevor Lawrence is getting hit on nearly every snap. The Jags don’t run the ball well, they aren’t able to pass well and their defense is bad. This seems like a trap game on the road and the back door is in play but the Bengals are rolling and if they want to take the next step they need to stomp on an inferior opponent and win a laugher. For you fantasy guys, fire up Joe Mixon, this will be his break-out game.

Final score

Bengals 27 – Jags 17

2 Drinks

Tennessee Titans (- 8) vs. New York Jets

This is a tough get-right game after another disastrous performance by the New York Jets. After  Zach Wilson threw four interceptions against the Patriots, the poor kid was forced to go to Denver and face the best secondary in the league. Disaster ensued and the Jets were blanked 26-0. There will be better days but this Jets team is bad.

The Titans got their groove back after Derrick Henry went wild in the second half against Seattle, the Titans then bounced back for a convincing win over division rival Colts. This is a team that knows who they are and they don’t deviate. Both Julio Jones and AJ Brown look iffy for this game but that doesn’t matter.

The Jets can’t stop the run and they are struggling on offense. I like the Titans to bludgeon the Jets with Derrick Henry and give him the ball 25-30 times to run out the game. The Titans are the worst pass defense in the NFL so the big number may worry folks. I’m not worried.

I like the Titans with the points.

Final Score

Titans 27 – Jets 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the New England Patriots

Bucs -7

This is the big one folks. NBC executives are drooling over the Brady/Belichick Bowl. Tom goes home to New England to finish off the last team he needs to beat to conquer the entire league. With both teams coming off of a loss, they will be highly motivated for the W. No one cares about that though. They care about the Brady/Belichick drama.

Brady and Belichick are the most successful pairing in the history of sports. Yes, more successful than Phil and Mike or Phil and Kobe. Football is much more difficult to reach the mountain top and Bill and Brady did 6 times. It’s astounding. Belichick is not a good person. He is all business and he saw an aging Tom Brady and wanted a new QB. This was a bad choice.

Tom humiliated the Patriots. Going to Tampa and winning a title in his first year is the stuff of legends. The NFL is the most coaching league of all the major sports but coaches are the marinade, not the meat. Players will always rule over all other factors. Tom leaves, wins a bowl, he would have gone to the playoffs with any team he chose. I truly believe that. Belichick is left with a broken Cam Newton and now a game managing rookie in Mac Jones. Belichick won’t sniff the playoffs for 3 years. Always choose the players.

Tom Brady Destruction

Tom is going to go crazy against the Patriots. Bill knows Tom, okay. The Bucs brought everyone back to win another bowl. They are struggling on defense so it’s a good thing they get a rookie QB that can not hurt them where they are vulnerable. Billy B is going to do what he does and take away what Tom loves to do, it won’t matter. The Patriots don’t get to the quarterback well, the Bucs offensive line is one of the best in the NFL and Tom knows Bill too. I love the Bucs to beat the Patriots and Tom will get his revenge.

They are a superior team, the line is meant to get gamblers to say, man, 7 points is a lot I’m gonna go with the underdog. Bookies want even money, that is both sides of the line taking bets. This is why big numbers often don’t scare me.

The Bucs are a better team that just got beat up by the Rams. Those two teams are vying for an NFC title. The Bucs are angry, motivated, and lead by the greatest QB that has ever lived. He’s going home and he is going to dismantle the Patriots.

Gambling 101

Also, a side note for all those new gamblers. Love ya! Oddsmakers don’t care who wins the game. It’s a hard concept because our entire lives we are taught to care who wins the game. As fans, we don’t care if our team wins by one point or by 30 points. Oddsmakers set lines to get money on both sides of the book. That is why large numbers often hit for the team giving points.

Final Score – Bucs 38 – Patriots 17

That’s it, good people. This should be a great week of action once again. I love my picks. You should too. The Thirsty Three hit its first 3-0 start, it won’t be the last. Let’s make some money.

So tip them back, whatever is your drink of choice, and keep checking the SportsObsessive.com for all your favorites sports and gambling information! Let’s get it, good people!

Written by Keith James

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